Director of the institute for strategic studies, the national defense university: don’t underestimate the trump

the author: Yang yi time: on March 29, 2018,

editor’s note: Beijing strategic industry to discuss & other; Under the condition of the competition pattern of China and the United States & throughout; Former director of the institute, the strategy of China’s national defense university, embassy attache, Yang yi, famous scholars, looking forward to the strategic adjustment and its leverage China’s top three choices.

trump on strategic issues across the chaotic period of

in the current china-us relations are experiencing a turning point, Yang yi, in the first three Pacific securities & other; One Belt And One Road & other; Throughout the &; Internal BBS on new ideas. ?

look at first, the us strategic adjustment which influence on the world.

from the different concepts of space and time and latitude Angle of view, different strategy problem, can draw different conclusions. We analyze the strategic adjustment, from the comprehensive strategic perspective.

trump government in December 2017 issued a “national security strategy report” is an important symbol, this is the government strategy & trump other Shape & throughout; , & other Adult ceremony & throughout; . The rest of the strategy report, such as: the defense strategy report, the nuclear posture review NPR and trump’s first state of the union, the national security strategy report are determined the national grand strategy in different areas of the concrete embodiment.

trump took more than a year since the implementation of policies is changing in the United States. In a sense, is changing the world. The adjustment of American policy affects global world, influence greatly. American strategic direction is our important reference to strategic judgment and decision making.

so, how to interpret the “national security strategy report” in the United States and the national defense strategy report, and through the two strategic reports to determine the strategic direction of the United States?

the national security strategy report with trump characteristics and the characteristics of traditional comprehensive characteristics, but on the whole, maintain the continuity of the us national security strategy, especially in the basic strategy within the framework of (security strategy four major goals: to protect the American people, promote the prosperity and strength to maintain peace and promote American influence). In a sense, also can say, the two important strategy report, marks a trump after was elected in national security strategy of the chaos and uncertainty, return to the orbit of the traditional strategy.

report, marks a new U.S. administration strategy of overall shape end (fragmentation) and clarifications (end fuzzy chaos), the original tone inconsistent (departments). Although the future there will be some trump & other; Improvisation of & throughout; Going to some it is hard to predict, the trick, however, the policy will not happen big changes.

& other; Abnormal & throughout; Turn piece Big competition coming

in November 2017, the President of the United States with big trump trade group’s visit to China.

the strategy of the national security strategy report marked the return & other; Normal & throughout; Or return & other; The old normal & throughout; , including Henry kissinger, zbigniew brzezinski argues that the powers of the political balance theory. After the end of the cold war, the United States and other Shearing dominating throughout the &; , fukuyama’s & other; The end of history & throughout; The theory is very popular. At that time, China has not too much, drinking some get carried away in the cold war the United States. But 911 event triggered the anger, the continuous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, terrorism involving greatly consumed America’s strategic energy and resources. Now return to political power of the traditional way of thinking, is very natural.

judgment to the challenge of the security threat from the United States, for & other; Three big challenges throughout the sort &; To determine key is & other; Big competition & throughout; . This is one of the most obvious change since 911, more prominent power competition strategic challenge to the United States, especially between China and Russia on the priority. In recent years, China and Russia overall strength and influence increased with shrink America’s political strategy, form a contrast.

outstanding trump put forward in the report of the U.S. strategy & other; Throughout America &; , which fully embodies in two important report, many problems expression way has strong & other Trump characteristics & throughout; .

if you carefully read the content of the two report, especially the core ideas and strategic moves, you can see, the overall train of thought and the traditional strategic track returned to the United States. Major maintenance American hegemony, with hard and soft power, including military force, support, and for the United States to seek greater benefits (even by & other; Throughout beggar-thy-neighbour way &;) .

strategic way choice: a realistic principle, focus on results, not marked by ideology, rely on the strength of lay particular stress on, especially hard power. For the use of military force, emphasis on dealing with various size and various styles of the great war, no longer cut the size of the military force, at the same time to strengthen the level of modernization. To maintain and enhance its nuclear Arsenal, intelligence, modernization and scale space, Internet and other new areas, has published “the defense strategy report” and “nuclear posture review NPR is fully reflect the strategic moves in the field of military.

the United States “nuclear posture review NPR” revealed many disturbing signals, such as: building & other; Colombia & throughout; Level strategic nuclear submarines to replace & other; The Ohio & throughout; Class nuclear submarines, development, and deployment & other; B – 21 attackers & throughout; The next generation bomber, alternative B – 52 h bombers and B – 2 a & other; Contact & throughout; Strategic bombers, nuclear strike capability will be greatly increased. R&d submarine-launched and surface ships launched cruise missile, onboard cruise missile, when it is necessary to conduct a nuclear test, research and development of low-yield nuclear warheads, these measures are actually lowers the threshold of a nuclear attack.

China needs to do well the strategic management

we must not underestimate the trump policy impact on the world pattern, trump is not completely unreliable, compared with the traditional American politicians, trump a more pragmatic, more & other; It will line, in deed & throughout; , for more than a year, he is gradually implement his campaign promises.

in the White House after trump, successively degrading to withdraw from the international commitments (TPP, climate treaty of Paris, etc.), abandoning the multilateral mechanism, mercenary, is proud, lining, more practical, in the face of such a & other; Mix horizontal unreasonable & throughout; The President of the United States and countries around the world? How countries respond?

this will require a running-in process, in this period, there is compromise, has the power to restructuring, also have & other Dad marry die, and every one of personal & throughout; The chaos of the confusion, the whole world need a adapt and running-in process. Trump policy impact on the world is full, the political, economic, security, military, finance, etc., all countries need to adjust their mentality, but also need to do well the strategic management in China, deal with properly.

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Yang yi, China’s national defense university, director of the institute of strategic studies the original and embassy attache, rear admiral, a well-known scholar of the china-us strategic. In the current china-us relations are experiencing a special period, Yang yi, in the first three Pacific securities & other; One Belt And One Road & throughout; Internal BBS published the latest view.